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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Damac cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al Kholood 1-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.31 xG and Damac 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Damac outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.91 / defence 1.13 against Damac attack 0.69 / defence 1.00, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 43% | Draw 29% | Damac 28%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Damac 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.15 PPG, Damac 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights