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Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Kholood 0-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.62 xG and Al Taawon 2.21 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.16 / defence 1.15 against Al Taawon attack 1.30 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 27% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 50%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al Taawon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Taawon's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights