Al Kholood 0-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Shabab at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al Kholood welcome Al Shabab to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 7 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have gone 1W 4D 4L from 9 outings — a 0.78 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Shabab are 1.32 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.78), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 67% versus Al Shabab 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 44% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.08 xG and Al Shabab 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.111 / defence 1.451 | Al Shabab attack 1.013 / defence 0.651. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.276. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.651 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Al Kholood games / 43 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Al Shabab 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 75% | Al Shabab 10%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Kholood 1.08 / Al Shabab 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.111 / def 1.451 | Al Shabab attack 1.013 / def 0.651 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Al Shabab xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al Shabab kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 7 November 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Al Kholood 0 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Kholood vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 22% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Kholood and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Shabab?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Kholood and Al Shabab in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.89 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (1.11) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
22%
4.65
22%
4.46
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.95
1.88
Al Shabab xG
4.65
22%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
3%
30.39
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.88 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Al Kholood have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 1W 4D 4L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 6W 0D 3L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Kholood.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Kholood have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 6W 0D 3L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 0.50 PPG; Al Shabab away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Kholood have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
0
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al Shabab?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al Shabab have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al Kholood 1-0 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 75%, Al Shabab 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al Kholood) and 25% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 0% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Al Kholood's recent games and 25% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Kholood and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Kholood 0-2 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.08 xG and Al Shabab 1.88 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.11 / defence 1.45 against Al Shabab attack 1.01 / defence 0.65, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 56%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 44%, Al Shabab 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.78. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.