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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Riyadh cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Kholood 0-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.44 xG and Al Riyadh 1.28 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.76 / defence 1.26 against Al Riyadh attack 0.76 / defence 1.30, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 40% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 33%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al Riyadh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al Riyadh 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.07 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights