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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Al Riyadh 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al Riyadh 3-2 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.65 xG and Al Riyadh 1.42 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Kholood beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.88 / defence 1.22 against Al Riyadh attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 43% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 33%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Al Riyadh 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights