Al Kholood vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Kholood face Al-Qadisiyah FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC make the trip to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to face Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 13:50 UTC.

Form

Al Kholood (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Kholood's home record at Al-Hazem Club Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 1.40 PPG clear of Al Kholood in recent Pro League fixtures (2.70 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Across the last 4 meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al Kholood's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 1–4 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Al Kholood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 56% and Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Kholood 64% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.17 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.192 / defence 1.073 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.400 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.302. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al Kholood games / 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 20% | Draw 27% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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