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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Kholood 0-3 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.26 xG and Al-Nassr 2.41 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.79 / defence 1.29 against Al-Nassr attack 1.30 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 62%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 61%, Al-Nassr 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights