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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Al Kholood and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.20 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.86 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Kholood beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.70 / defence 1.32 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 24% | Draw 23% | Al Khaleej Saihat 53%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 62%, Al Khaleej Saihat 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.08 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights