🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Kholood 0-4 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.59 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.30 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 2.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 26% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 54%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 61%, Al-Ittihad FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights