Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Hazem Club Stadium plays host to Al Kholood versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Thursday 10 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Kholood have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hazm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al Kholood 0W, Al-Hazm 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Hazm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Kholood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 67% | Al-Hazm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.64 xG and Al-Hazm 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.932 / defence 1.271 | Al-Hazm attack 0.882 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.476. Data: 45 Al Kholood games / 46 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Kholood 1.64 / Al-Hazm 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.932 / def 1.271 | Al-Hazm attack 0.882 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Al-Hazm xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 10 December 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 2W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hazm in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Kholood's attack at 0.93x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.88x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.70
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.29
1.65
Al-Hazm xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.65 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 12W 9D 24L from 45 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 20L across 45 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al Kholood against 1.13 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 6W 4D 12L from 22 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Kholood are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.13 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 24L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Kholood's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
0
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 54%, Al-Hazm 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al Kholood and 59% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 41% of games; Al-Hazm in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Kholood's games and 59% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Kholood's matches and 59% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.