🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Kholood and Al-Fayha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood and Al-Fayha finished level at 1-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 1.59 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.78 / defence 1.30 against Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 33% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 43%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 64%, Al-Fayha 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.10 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights