🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Kholood cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.41 xG and Al-Fayha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Al-Fayha attack 0.75 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 42% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 32%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Al-Fayha 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.06 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights