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Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Al-Fateh 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Fateh 2-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.91 xG and Al-Fateh 1.31 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Al-Fateh attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 52% | Draw 22% | Al-Fateh 26%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 56%, Al-Fateh 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.22 PPG, Al-Fateh 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights