Al Kholood 0-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Al Hazm Club Stadium to take on Al Kholood. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026, 15:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood at Al Hazm Club Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Kholood 1.30 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Kholood, 2 for Al-Ettifaq and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al Kholood trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Ettifaq 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 65% | Al-Ettifaq 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.22 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.067 / defence 1.230 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.001 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.432. Data: 43 Al Kholood games / 44 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 2.08. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Hazm Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Kholood 1.22 / Al-Ettifaq 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.067 / def 1.230 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.001 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Al-Ettifaq xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 15:05 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Al Hazm Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Kholood 0 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Hazm Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 24% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Al Kholood 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Kholood's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
24%
4.16
28%
3.57
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
2.98
1.76
Al-Ettifaq xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
4%
24.28
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.76 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 12W 9D 22L from 43 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 15L across 43 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Kholood on 1.05 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 6W 4D 11L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 10W 3D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Kholood are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.47 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.05 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2026, when Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
0
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Al Kholood 0-3 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 57%, Al-Ettifaq 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al Kholood) and 52% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 48% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Kholood's matches and 52% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Kholood 0-3 at Al Hazm Club Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.22 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.76 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.00 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 24% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 48%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 65%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.05 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.