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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Kholood 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Kholood 1-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.19 xG and Al-Ettifaq 2.17 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.81 / defence 1.27 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ettifaq 59%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 60%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights