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Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.12 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.87 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ettifaq 54%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 57%, Al-Ettifaq 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.03 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights