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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al Kholood and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 15:10 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Kholood have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Kholood are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Kholood, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 0.91 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.856 / defence 1.337 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.851 / defence 0.688. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.409. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.688 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Al Kholood games / 48 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Kholood 21% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% BTTS from recent games.

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