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Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 0.99 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.26 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.87 / defence 1.41 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 15% | Draw 19% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 66%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 57%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Kholood's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights