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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Damac.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Damac 4-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 xG and Damac 1.25 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Damac attack 0.81 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 25% | Damac 31%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 65%, Damac 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Damac's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 PPG, Damac 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights