Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 13:25 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season.
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Damac's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 2 for Damac and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al Khaleej Saihat — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Damac — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 55% versus Damac 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 51% | Damac 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.73 xG and Damac 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.063 / defence 1.007 | Damac attack 0.955 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.342. Data: 51 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 51 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 48% | Draw 24% | Damac 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 3.45. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Damac 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 13:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 48% | Draw 24% | Damac 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.73 / Damac 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.063 / def 1.007 | Damac attack 0.955 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Damac xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac kicked off at 13:25 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 48% chance of winning, Damac a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac?
Record (5 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 3W | Draws 0 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Damac (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.95x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.24
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.02
1.29
Damac xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.29 for Damac, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 17W 12D 22L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 16W 14D 21L from 51 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.22 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Damac have gone 6W 5D 14L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.35 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Damac have gone 16W 14D 21L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Damac away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.12 PPG; Damac away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-0 on 9 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 5, Damac have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Damac 0-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, Damac 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 52% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 32% of games; Damac in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 60% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 52% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Damac in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac finished level at 1-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.73 xG and Damac 1.29 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Damac attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 48% | Draw 24% | Damac 29%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 51%, Damac 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.24 PPG, Damac 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.