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Shock result as Al Taawon defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Taawon beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.67 xG and Al Taawon 1.38 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Al Taawon attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 65%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Taawon's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.16 PPG, Al Taawon 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights