Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 63% and Al Shabab 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 66% | Al Shabab 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.36 xG and Al Shabab 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.012 / defence 1.191 | Al Shabab attack 0.912 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.454. Data: 35 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 35 Al Shabab games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 33% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Al Shabab 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al Shabab 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 33% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.36 / Al Shabab 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.012 / def 1.191 | Al Shabab attack 0.912 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al Shabab xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 33% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
Record (8 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 4W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al Shabab's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.91x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
33%
3.03
24%
4.10
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.94
1.58
Al Shabab xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.58 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 8D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.00 PPG from 35 outings (8W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.00 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 6W 2D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.29 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 8W 11D 16L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.18 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
3
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al Shabab have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 47%, Al Shabab 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 29% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 41% of games; Al Shabab in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 47% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 29% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Khaleej Saihat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab finished level at 0-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.36 xG and Al Shabab 1.58 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Shabab landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.01 / defence 1.19 against Al Shabab attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 33% | Draw 24% | Al Shabab 43%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 66%, Al Shabab 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.09 PPG, Al Shabab 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.