Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 13:25 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al Khaleej Saihat's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al Shabab's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 64% and Al Shabab 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 68% | Al Shabab 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 2.16 xG and Al Shabab 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.377 / defence 0.947 | Al Shabab attack 0.677 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.486. Al Khaleej Saihat carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 50 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 65% | Draw 20% | Al Shabab 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Al Shabab 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Khaleej Saihat (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Al Shabab lead the H2H ledger, but Al Khaleej Saihat carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al Shabab 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 13:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 65% | Draw 20% | Al Shabab 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 2.16 / Al Shabab 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.377 / def 0.947 | Al Shabab attack 0.677 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al Shabab xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab kicked off at 13:25 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 65% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
Record (7 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 2W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 4W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Al Shabab's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.68x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
65%
1.55
20%
4.92
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.12
0.95
Al Shabab xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
11%
8.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
2%
57.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.95 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 10D 23L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.44 PPG from 50 outings (20W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.44 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 8W 5D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.17 points per game from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.58 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 10D 23L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 20W 12D 18L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.21 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
3
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al Shabab have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al Shabab 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 50% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 58% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 50% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Khaleej Saihat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab finished level at 0-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 2.16 xG and Al Shabab 0.95 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Al Shabab landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.38 / defence 0.95 against Al Shabab attack 0.68 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 65% | Draw 20% | Al Shabab 15%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 68%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Shabab's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.22 PPG, Al Shabab 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.