Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Al Shabab arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 57% versus Al Shabab 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 43% | Al Shabab 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.15 xG and Al Shabab 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.927 / defence 1.059 | Al Shabab attack 0.928 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.251. Data: 35 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 35 Al Shabab games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 34% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 38%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Al Shabab 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al Shabab 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 34% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.15 / Al Shabab 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.927 / def 1.059 | Al Shabab attack 0.928 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al Shabab xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 29 August 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 34% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al Shabab's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.93x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.59
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.37
1.23
Al Shabab xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.23 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 10D 15L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (12W 8D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.26 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 3W 6D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.29 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 0.88 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al Shabab have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 65%, Al Shabab 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 41% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 35%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Shabab in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 35% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 41% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Khaleej Saihat 0-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.15 xG and Al Shabab 1.23 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Al Shabab attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 34% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 38%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 43%, Al Shabab 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.14 PPG, Al Shabab 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.