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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Riyadh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Riyadh 4-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.77 xG and Al Riyadh 1.15 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Al Riyadh attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 52% | Draw 23% | Al Riyadh 25%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 63%, Al Riyadh 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights