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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.25 xG and Al Riyadh 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.79 / defence 1.19 against Al Riyadh attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 35% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 38%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, Al Riyadh 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights