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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Qadisiyah FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.25 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.67 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.81 / defence 1.26 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 28% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 47%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 61%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights