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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Orubah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Orubah 3-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 2.18 xG and Al Orubah 1.06 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Orubah landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Al Orubah attack 0.79 / defence 1.43, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 63% | Draw 20% | Al Orubah 17%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 57%, Al Orubah 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Orubah's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Khaleej Saihat arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights