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Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Okhdood 4-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 2.08 xG and Al Okhdood 0.77 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.26 / defence 0.95 against Al Okhdood attack 0.57 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 68% | Draw 20% | Al Okhdood 13%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 67%, Al Okhdood 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.21 PPG, Al Okhdood 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights