🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC drew 4-4 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.61 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 35%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 62%, Al-Ittihad FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights