Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 2W 1D 7L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have claimed 7 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 61% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 61% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.90 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.871 / defence 1.047 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.304 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.392. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 36 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 16% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 16% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.90 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.871 / def 1.047 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.304 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 16% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.30x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
The sample (37/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
16%
6.38
25%
3.97
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.80
1.90
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
6.38
16%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
2%
42.68
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.90 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 9W 10D 17L from 36 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 9D 0L across 36 games — 2.50 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 6W 3D 9L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 13W 5D 0L across 18 trips, a 2.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.56 scored and 0.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 27W 9D 0L in their last 36 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 1-5 on 28 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 44%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 61% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 44%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 61% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.90 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.90 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.90 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.75, drawn from 37/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 16% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 59%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 61%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.61 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.