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Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.20 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.33 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.02 / defence 1.13 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.78, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 18% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 62%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights