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Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al Khaleej Saihat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-5 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.63 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Al-Fateh attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 29%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Fateh 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights