Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.34 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.08 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.12 / defence 0.94 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 46%, Al-Ettifaq 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.22 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights