Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 36%, yet in-form Al Baten provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Baten make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 Pro League outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Baten have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Baten are 0.85 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat in recent Pro League fixtures (1.10 vs 0.25). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in just 25% of their matches, Al Baten in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Al Baten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Khaleej Saihat 25% | Al Baten 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 25% | Al Baten 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.97 xG and Al Baten 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.650 / defence 1.098 | Al Baten attack 0.768 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.070. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Baten bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 34 Al Baten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 36% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Al Baten 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Baten (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 25% | Al Baten 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 36% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.97 / Al Baten 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.650 / def 1.098 | Al Baten attack 0.768 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al Baten xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 36% chance of winning, Al Baten a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Baten in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L. Al Baten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.65) and Al Baten's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.77x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.11
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
1.87
0.90
Al Baten xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 13.9 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.90 for Al Baten, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 0.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.25 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.00 for Al Baten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.00 scored and 3.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Al Baten in 0%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al Baten
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Baten?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2023, when Al Baten 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 0% (Al Baten) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 100% for Al Baten. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 75% of games; Al Baten in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 0% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 100% of Al Baten's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Khaleej Saihat edge out Al Baten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Baten 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.97 xG and Al Baten 0.90 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Baten landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.65 / defence 1.10 against Al Baten attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 36% | Draw 32% | Al Baten 32%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 25%, Al Baten 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 12%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 100% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 0.25 PPG, Al Baten 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al Baten conceded 1 against a 3.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.