🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Al Khaleej Saihat host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 3W 1D 6L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ahli Jeddah — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ahli Jeddah, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Al Khaleej Saihat.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2026, ended 1–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Patterns

Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 61% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 64% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.915 / defence 1.331 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.026 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.398. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 67 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 20% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights