Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Adalah at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 8 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Adalah have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Al-Adalah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.00 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.00 for Al-Adalah. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.89 xG and Al-Adalah 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.760 / defence 1.195 | Al-Adalah attack 0.711 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.233. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 2 Al-Adalah games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 30% | Draw 31% | Al-Adalah 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Adalah 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Adalah at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Adalah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 30% | Draw 31% | Al-Adalah 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.89 / Al-Adalah 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.760 / def 1.195 | Al-Adalah attack 0.711 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Al-Adalah (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Al-Adalah xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 8 September 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah?
Al Khaleej Saihat 0 - 0 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 30% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Adalah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L. Al-Adalah (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Al-Adalah's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.71x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Adalah Win
30%
3.33
31%
3.19
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
1.93
1.05
Al-Adalah xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 15.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.05 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Adalah's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Adalah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.00 for Al-Adalah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Adalah in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
Al-Adalah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
1
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Adalah have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2023, when Al-Adalah 2-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah?
Al-Adalah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 0% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 50% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Khaleej Saihat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Adalah finished level at 0-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.89 xG and Al-Adalah 1.05 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Adalah landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Al-Adalah attack 0.71 / defence 1.09, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 30% | Draw 31% | Al-Adalah 39%, with Al-Adalah to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al-Adalah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 0.00 PPG, Al-Adalah 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Adalah conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.