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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as NEOM defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEOM beat Al-Ittihad FC 3-4 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.04 xG and NEOM 0.70 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NEOM outscored their 0.70 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.68 against NEOM attack 0.74 / defence 0.82, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 43% | Draw 33% | NEOM 24%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a NEOM win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 44%, NEOM 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 PPG, NEOM 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEOM win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEOM (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights