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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Damac 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Damac 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 xG and Damac 0.81 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against Damac attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 49% | Draw 29% | Damac 22%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 55%, Damac 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Damac's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights