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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Damac 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Damac 1-0 at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.96 xG and Damac 0.86 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Damac landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.82 against Damac attack 0.73 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 63% | Draw 21% | Damac 16%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 67%, Damac 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Damac's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights