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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Taawon 1-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.21 xG and Al Taawon 1.61 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taawon landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Al Taawon attack 1.24 / defence 0.82, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 28% | Draw 26% | Al Taawon 46%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 60%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Taawon's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights