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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Shabab.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Shabab 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.14 xG and Al Shabab 1.14 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Shabab landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Al Shabab attack 0.81 / defence 0.82, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Draw 35% | Al Shabab 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Al-Ittihad FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 60%, Al Shabab 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Shabab's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.58. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights