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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Shabab 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Shabab 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 xG and Al Shabab 1.12 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.51 / defence 0.78 against Al Shabab attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 21%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al Shabab 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Shabab's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights