Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ittihad FC. A 1.40 PPG lead over Al Shabab (2.80 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 3 for Al Shabab and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 61% versus Al Shabab 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Al Shabab 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 xG and Al Shabab 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.515 / defence 0.780 | Al Shabab attack 1.004 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.436. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al-Ittihad FC games / 49 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Al Shabab 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al Shabab 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 / Al Shabab 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.515 / def 0.780 | Al Shabab attack 1.004 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al Shabab xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 22 January 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 57% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 3W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.51) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.00x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.61
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.10
1.12
Al Shabab xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
33.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.12 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 49 games, going 29W 7D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.43 PPG from 49 outings (20W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 16W 2D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.25 points per game from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.37 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 29W 7D 13L in their last 49 games (1.92 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 20W 10D 19L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.08 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Shabab have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 75%, Al Shabab 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 79% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 38% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 42%; Al Shabab in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 33% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 38% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Shabab 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Shabab 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.97 xG and Al Shabab 1.12 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.51 / defence 0.78 against Al Shabab attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 57% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 21%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al Shabab 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.