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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Inma Bank Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City, Regular Season - 23, as Al-Ittihad FC and Al Okhdood drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.68 xG and Al Okhdood 1.03 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.58 / defence 0.90 against Al Okhdood attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 72% | Draw 16% | Al Okhdood 12%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 68%, Al Okhdood 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights