Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 away games — 2.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ittihad FC's 1.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Al-Ittihad FC, 4 for Al-Nassr and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 58% versus Al-Nassr 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Al-Nassr 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 xG and Al-Nassr 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.070 / defence 1.057 | Al-Nassr attack 1.503 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.362. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.503 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Al-Ittihad FC games / 38 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Nassr 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Nassr 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al-Nassr 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Nassr 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 / Al-Nassr 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.070 / def 1.057 | Al-Nassr attack 1.503 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Al-Nassr xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 22% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Nassr 4W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
22%
4.51
23%
4.29
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.52
2.16
Al-Nassr xG
4.51
22%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
11%
8.70
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
3%
39.23
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 2.16 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 18W 9D 11L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr's form line: 32W 2D 4L from 38 games, 2.58 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ittihad FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (11W 2D 6L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 15W 1D 3L from 19 away games — 2.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.71 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 32W 2D 4L in their last 38 (2.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 47%, Al-Nassr 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 74% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 53%; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 47% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 74% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ittihad FC defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.35 xG and Al-Nassr 2.16 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Nassr landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.06 against Al-Nassr attack 1.50 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 22% | Draw 23% | Al-Nassr 55%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ittihad FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 47%, Al-Nassr 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.66. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.