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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 xG and Al-Nassr 2.15 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.36 / defence 1.00 against Al-Nassr attack 1.51 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 31% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 49%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 65%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.49 PPG against 2.05. Form was overturned, with Al-Nassr winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights