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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.31 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.58 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 29% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 62%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights