Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Hazm travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ittihad FC 1.70 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Hazm in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Ittihad FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Al-Hazm have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 58% versus Al-Hazm 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 47% | Al-Hazm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG and Al-Hazm 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.942 / defence 0.990 | Al-Hazm attack 0.948 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.390. Data: 36 Al-Ittihad FC games / 36 Al-Hazm games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hazm 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al-Hazm 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 / Al-Hazm 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.942 / def 0.990 | Al-Hazm attack 0.948 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Al-Hazm xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 August 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 38% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 4W | Draws 2 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.80
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.30
Al-Hazm xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.30 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 36 games, going 17W 8D 11L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Hazm sit at 1.25 PPG from 36 outings (12W 9D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ittihad FC on 1.64 PPG, Al-Hazm on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 10W 2D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Hazm have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.11 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 17W 8D 11L in their last 36 games (1.64 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.78 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 44%, Al-Hazm 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 56% (Al-Hazm).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Hazm in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 61% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 56% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al-Hazm 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Hazm 3-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.34 xG and Al-Hazm 1.30 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Al-Hazm attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 36%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 47%, Al-Hazm 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 1.64 PPG, Al-Hazm 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.