Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ittihad FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC at King Abdullah Sports City this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Ittihad FC a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 59% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 49% | Al-Fayha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.63 xG and Al-Fayha 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.146 / defence 0.992 | Al-Fayha attack 0.833 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.309. Data: 39 Al-Ittihad FC games / 39 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Fayha 4.35. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 70% | Al-Fayha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 48% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.63 / Al-Fayha 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.146 / def 0.992 | Al-Fayha attack 0.833 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Fayha xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 48% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 6W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.15) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.83x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
48%
2.09
29%
3.40
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.08
Al-Fayha xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
4%
22.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.08 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 19W 9D 11L from 39 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 18L across 39 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 11W 2D 6L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 games (1.69 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 47%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 63% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Al-Fayha in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 63% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.